|Title||Are we overconfident in our understanding of overconfidence?|
|Authors||Raymond R. Panko|
|Publication||First Workshop on Software Engineering Methods in Spreadsheets|
In spreadsheet error research, there is a Grand Paradox. Although many studies have looked at spreadsheet errors, and have found, without exception, has error rates that are unacceptable in organizations, organizations continue to ignore spreadsheet risks.
They do not see the need to apply software engineering disciplines long seen to be necessary in software development, in which error types and rates are similar to those in spreadsheet development.
Traditionally, this Great Paradox had been attributed to overconfidence. This paper introduces other possible approaches for understanding the Grand Paradox. It focuses on risk blindness, which is our unawareness of errors when they occur.
You are told that a bat and ball cost a dollar and ten cents and that the bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
A typical response is that the ball costs ten cents. This is wrong, of course.